17 March 2026 · Falah Mousa
Although the U.S. militarily "won" the Iraq War in 2003 by removing Saddam Hussein's regime and accomplishing most of what Washington set out to do, the U.S. politically lost this war. Over twenty years after the fall of Baghdad, Iraq is still largely under Iran's influence. Parties in Baghdad have close ties to Tehran and are key players in Iraq's government. Openly operating in Iraq, Iranian-backed militias are also embedded within Iraqi governmental institutions.
For over $2 Trillion and at the cost of nearly 4,500 U.S. lives, the U.S. created, in Iraq, an unstable pro-Iranian environment instead of a stable pro-American one.
That is a lesson that has been avoided by many for too long: winning the battle does not necessarily equate to winning the war.
The biggest problem with the Iraq invasion was not the invasion itself but the lack of an appropriate post-invasion plan. By disbanning the Iraqi Army and disbanding the Baath party, Washington disestablished the institutions which had preserved the state. Instead of a new beginning, what occurred next was a void in power. And, as history has shown us time and again, voids in power are quickly filled by those entities best equipped, best armed and best prepared to fill that void.
In Iraq, it was Iran that filled that void.
For that reason, the potential consequences of the current conflict with Iran are so significant. The belief that removal of a regime (or destruction of it) through aerial bombing will result in the establishment of a better government is no strategy. The most well-organized and well-equipped force within Iran is not the opposition groups residing in exile, not the monarchists, nor those with influence from their allies in Washington; it is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Thus, any effort to break the regime from outside could either leave its core power structure in place or push the country toward collapse. Neither outcome would bring stability.
Therefore, the first major question remains unanswered: Who will govern Iran on the day after the collapse of the Regime?
Washington may have desires regarding this issue, but desire is not a plan. Destruction does not equate to Governance.
If the objective is to halt Iran's Nuclear Program, then the results to date provide more questions than answers. If the objective is Regional Stability, the repeated attacks have only increased the danger to the Region.
As such, Iraq should have provided a clear lesson: Removing a Regime is significantly easier than creating a politically stable environment after the collapse of that Regime.
It is there, and only there, that wars are ultimately lost. Wars are often won on the battlefield and lost in the vacuum that follows.
President Donald Trump's stated objectives of the war with Iran are changing every day. Sometimes it is as if the objective is to be able to bring about regime change. The next time he said that his objective was simply to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear program. Some days he wants unconditional surrender and some afternoons he indicates he may be willing to negotiate.
By contrast, Iran's sole objective today is the survival of the regime. For over four decades that regime has poisoned the lives of Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis and many others. The regime's history of repressing its people, destroying their lives, lying to them and making short sighted decisions which contributed to igniting this war is well documented. Tehran now appears to want to expand the conflict to include Iran's surrogates in Lebanon, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East and provoke a global energy crisis to convert this conflict into multiple global crises.
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