Falah Mousa
The Arab Barometer’s latest Wave VIII report reveals a troubling trend: migration is no longer just an option for many in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but a pressing necessity. The findings reflect societies on the brink, where mass migration signals internal collapse and a need for urgent international action.
According to the report nearly half of Tunisians (46%) and significant portions of Jordanians (42%) and Lebanese (38%) are considering leaving their countries. These figures are a stark reflection of the harsh realities faced by millions in the region—realities driven by deteriorating economic conditions, political instability, and rising insecurity. Shockingly, 71% of Tunisian youth aged 18-29 are contemplating emigration, a figure that should concern any government hoping to build a future on the backs of its younger generations.
Lebanon tells a story of compounded crises. With its economy in freefall, widespread political corruption, and growing tensions with Israel, 38% of Lebanese are looking for a way out. For many Lebanese, the decision to emigrate is not just about seeking better economic conditions but also about escaping the instability that plagues their country. 27% of potential migrants in Lebanon cite security concerns as their primary reason for leaving, and an alarming 23% are driven by the political situation. These figures underscore how Lebanon's ongoing political and economic crises are pushing segments of the population to the brink, forcing them to seek a safer, more stable life abroad. Even among those who remain, pessimism about the future runs deep. Virtually no one in Lebanon rates the economy positively, and potential migrants view the future with even greater apprehension than those who plan to stay.
Morocco stands out as a critical case study. Around 35% of Moroccans are contemplating leaving their homeland. For many, this is not just a dream but a necessity driven by the relentless economic pressures and lack of opportunities. The Moroccan government’s inability to provide adequate job prospects has left an entire generation looking to Europe, with France, Spain, and Italy being the preferred destinations. But here’s the alarming part: 53% of Moroccans willing to migrate are considering doing so without proper documentation, indicating the desperation many feel. This figure is among the highest in the region, showing that, for many, legal pathways are out of reach due to financial constraints. Disturbingly, nearly two-thirds (64%) of potential Moroccan migrants struggling to cover their expenses are more willing to emigrate without the necessary papers, compared to only a third of their better-off counterparts.
In Jordan, the migration crisis is deeply rooted in economic hardship, with 42% of the population considering emigration. The situation is particularly alarming among the youth, with 54% of Jordanians aged 18-29 expressing a desire to leave the country. Economic factors are the primary driver for 90% of those wanting to emigrate, reflecting widespread discontent with the country's economic situation. While the overall percentage of Jordanians wanting to leave has dropped slightly from previous years, the figures remain significantly high, indicating persistent challenges in providing adequate opportunities for young people within the country. The top destinations for Jordanian migrants include North America, Western Europe, and the Gulf, as they seek better job prospects and a more stable future abroad, according to the Arab Barometer’s latest Wave VIII report.
Mauritania presents another alarming scenario. With 22% of its citizens wanting to emigrate, the numbers might seem lower than in other countries, but a significant shift is underway. The percentage of people willing to emigrate without documentation has doubled in recent years, climbing from 22% in 2022 to 44% today. This increase reflects the intense challenges faced by many Mauritanians who are struggling to secure the proper documents for legal migration. The youth, in particular, are disproportionately affected, with 51% of young Mauritanians expressing a willingness to leave even without papers. This is a clear indication of the country’s inability to provide sufficient opportunities, driving a substantial portion of its population towards risky, irregular migration.
According to the report, the preferred destinations for these migrants vary but are telling. North America remains the top choice for many, with Canada and the United States seen as lands of opportunity. In Mauritania, 56% of those looking to migrate see the U.S. as their top destination, while in Lebanon and Morocco, France remains a popular choice due to historical ties and existing diaspora communities.
This migration crisis in the MENA region raises critical questions about the future. How can governments address the root causes; economic despair, political instability, and social discontent, that drive so many to leave? Can the international community step in to offer support before these societies lose an entire generation to migration? Or will we continue to manage the symptoms of this crisis rather than tackle its causes head-on?
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Falah Mousa 